Reflections on the outcomes of COP29, exploring key implications and opportunities for farmers, and looking ahead to COP30 in Brazil, authored by Luisa Volpe, Advocacy, Policy & Partnerships Practice Leader, and Francesco Brusaporco, Senior Officer at the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO)*.
After nearly a day and a half of extended negotiations, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev gaveled the Conference to a close at 5:31 AM on Sunday, 24 November 2024. After two weeks of tense and difficult debates and against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s re-election and other significant geopolitical shifts, Parties reached consensus on a package of critical decisions, including a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, the operational guidelines for carbon markets under Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement and further advancement on the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF). The final decision was far from perfect, and gaps remained on other key issues, leaving many stakeholders, including the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO), sober and uncertain. However, defying all odds, a decision was made with several implications for farmers. In reflecting on COP29 and its outcomes, we are looking ahead to the next COP and the dual challenge of closing the climate finance gap while keeping the multilateral system fit for purpose. Transitioning the global agrifood systems to a 1.5°C-aligned pathway will require making the trillions of dollars in the system available at the farm level while ensuring farmers have greater ownership in the decision-making process.
COP29 Decisions: What They Mean for Farmers
The NCGQ decision calls on all actors to work together to scale up climate financing to developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035, with developed countries “taking the lead” in providing and mobilizing at least USD 300 billion per year from a wide variety of sources, “public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources.” In other words, while there is a formal acknowledgement that the transition to a 1.5°C world will need trillions of investments (investments, not charity, as reminded by the UN Secretary-General during the COP opening), there is also a sobering recognition that the developed countries will only be able (willing?) to pay part of that money. According to the agreement, the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies will provide guidance on the development of a Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T outlining the strategy to fill the trillion-dollar gap.
Based on a FAO-CPI Report launched at the COP, the agrifood sector as a whole may soon need to undertake a similar exercise. While the current allocation to the broader sector amounts to an annual average of USD 28.5 billion, the cost of transitioning global agrifood systems to a 1.5°C-aligned pathway is estimated to run to over a trillion dollars a year, mostly required in developing countries. Even accepting that there is sufficient capital in the global financial system to close this investment gap, the main challenge of doing so “in a manner that does not threaten food production” (as per the NCQG text and Art.2(1)(b) of the Paris Agreement), will be to ensure that these funds are made available at the farm level. Therefore, on the one hand, farmers will have to work closely with governments, the private sector, investors and other key stakeholders to overcome barriers to redirecting capital to climate action in agrifood systems, especially in developing countries; on the other hand, a major effort is needed to build and develop the capacity of farmers’ organisations to administer funds, manage complex projects and channel benefits down to their members, becoming a reliable interlocutor for all relevant actors.
While the decision on Art.6, welcomed by all Parties after ten years of negotiations, was presented as one more opportunity to unlock financial support for developing countries, the ability of the UN-backed global carbon market to influence progress on the ground will depend on the provision of clear benefits and safeguards for the people on the frontline of climate change. In fact, when it comes to our sectors, some questions remain about the applicability of the adopted standards in agriculture. With the Supervisory Body expected to refine those standards in the year ahead to have the mechanism operational by late 2025 or early 2026, it is critical that the implementation of carbon markets prioritize farmers’ rights and consider the diversity of farm systems.
Finally, in the lead-up to and during COP29, significant steps have been taken towards the full operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF), including the appointment of an Executive Director, a Secretariat (The World Bank) and a location (The Philippines). The Fund was established at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh to assist developing countries in responding to economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with the adverse impacts of climate change. The latter has a disproportionate impact on farmers, with data from post-disaster needs assessments showing that agricultural losses made up around one-fourth of the total impact of disasters across all sectors and the FAO estimating that USD 3.8 trillion worth of crops and livestock have been lost due to disaster events over the past 30 years (a figure that dwarfs the USD 730 million pledged, not yet contributed to the LDF!). As the LDF is aiming to start financing projects next year, discussions on the participation of “most vulnerable constituencies” to the Fund’s governance are still ongoing, with Farmers asking to be recognized as an active observer to the LDF Board. At this stage, this request remains unmet, and a final decision was postponed until the next meeting of the Board in April 2025.
Which Opportunities for Farmers in COP29 Outcomes?
Ten years after the signature of the Paris Agreement (the warmest ten years on record!), the agreement reached in Baku clears up the narrow pathway to keep the Paris temperature goal within reach. Trust in the multilateral system is possibly at its lowest, but the Parties showed their commitment to the process. Even the (short) negotiations on the Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Work on Climate Action on Agriculture and Food Security (SSJW), which concluded with a rather dry agreement on enhancing the SSJW online portal, showed a collaborative attitude among Parties. Now halfway through, the 4-year initiative launched at COP27 must start delivering some results. With this in mind, however, it is critical that Parties address farmers’ needs and do not lose the focus on the bigger picture: the lack of engagement with practical, on-farm issues risks making discussions on agriculture less relevant to action on the ground.
Although there were no significant advancements in the SSJW negotiations nor the big announcements seen last year in Dubai, the COP29 Presidency, in coordination with the FAO, launched the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, aimed to help farmers navigate their way through over 90 agriculture-related partnerships and programs initiated over the years around COPs. While also adding one more entry to that list, the new platform achieved the triple objective of (1) putting farmers high on the COP29 agenda, (2) creating a single entry point for farmers and streamlining the landscape of initiatives, and hopefully also (3) ensuring some consistency around narrative and objectives.
Looking ahead, there are high expectations for the Brazilian Presidency to elevate discussions on the food-climate nexus and to restore trust in the UN climate negotiations. As they face first-hand the impacts of climate change, farmers do not have the luxury of withdrawing from this conversation. Through our continued commitment to the process, we stand ready to lead the way towards achieving a just transition for our sector, one which is grounded in investment, innovation and, perhaps most critically, fair and equitable partnerships.
Considering farmers as partners, not beneficiaries, sharing responsibilities and co-designing the solutions is critical to ensure that high-level strategies reflect on-the-ground realities, foster ownership among a group of key stakeholders, and, finally, accelerate the adoption of transformative practices at the farm level. As most countries are due to announce their new Climate Action Plans (the ‘NDCs‘) ahead of the next COP, they will be critical test, requiring greater engagement of farmers in the definition of targets and timelines, alongside timely access to the necessary means of implementation. The Azerbaijani Presidency framed COP29 as an inclusive process for inclusive outcomes; Brazil must now take up and deliver on that ambition.
* The World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO) is the focal point for the UNFCCC Farmers’ Constituency.